The first flight of the new Ariane 6 launcher is expected on July 9, four years behind the original schedule and finally ending repeated development delays and industrial obstacles. Meanwhile, with no domestic launchers available, Europe has had to call on US competitor SpaceX to launch its scientific and Galileo satellites. Toni Tolker-Nielsen, ESA’s director of space transport, explains the challenges facing ESA for the early exploitation of Ariane 6 and the strategy set for the European space transport system planned until the 2030s.
Is Ariane 6 ready for its first flight on July 9? In 1996, the first Ariane 5 exploded after 40 seconds. How can you reduce the risk of failure of Flight Model 1 or FM1?
Interpreter-Nielsen: We have done everything that can be done on the ground to ensure that this first flight is a success. I am very happy and I am 98% confident! Things are looking good this time. The launcher is fully qualified on the ground. We are reasonably confident about launching on July 9th as we solve small problems every day. On this demonstration flight, we have thousands of sensors on the rocket to test performance and validate our designs. Then, we will need five months until the second flight to analyze all the flight data.
Will the next challenge be the industrial ramp to launch nine Ariane 6 rockets every year?
It is a big challenge considering that we have already signed 30 contracts, 18 of which have been awarded to Amazon’s Kuiper constellation. It is unique to have such an order book for a new rocket. We are already working on a quick ramp after the first flight. After working out potential bugs, the first commercial flight is scheduled for the end of the year. Then we will have six flights in 2025 and eight flights in 2026. In 2027, there will be 10 flights because we have a lot of cargo waiting. Otherwise, we aim for a steady state of nine flights per year in 2028 and 2029.
The crossroad challenge is already happening in Kourou and in the entire chain of factories in the 13 European countries building Ariane 6. The production of the first batch of 15 launchers is well underway. We are currently negotiating contracts for Ariane 6 flights from 16 to 42. That is the hard production plan that everyone is committed to.
With the current commercial plan for the launch of four European institutions plus five commercial ones, will Ariane 6 still need a subsidy of 340 million euros ($365 million) every year until 2031?
The 13 ESA states involved in Ariane 6 have already agreed on funding for the first test flight and 14 operational missions. We are now discussing operating income for three years and nine launches per year. We analyze the business plan for the FM16 to 42 launcher fleet, looking at all launch service contracts and costs. We will need between 290 million euros and 340 million euros per year. The final number will be determined after an audit of the industry and supplier costs and revenues from contracts signed by Arianespace. In any case, we will not need more than 340 million euros to reach the operating balance of the new launcher.
What is the price of freedom for Europe to get a chance?
In particular, Ariane 6 is an independent launcher for European space access. Today we are in a precarious situation. That’s why last November, at the European ministerial meeting in Seville, we found a good solution to get funding for this European space program. 20 years ago, Ariane 5 was supported by the EGAS program (European Assured Access to Space for $120 to $240 million per year) to provide Europe with a stable launch service.
Is Ariane 6 still on track to achieve a 40% cost reduction compared to Ariane 5?
We are striving to reach the 40% target set in 2014, and we will get there. In 2022 and 2023, Europe experienced high inflation, but that is now decreasing. We have asked commercial carrier Arianespace, the ArianeGroup space company, and suppliers for further cost reductions. It continues, but we don’t want the European industry to lose money either.
Is it delusional to believe that Ariane 6 can still make some commercial gains like the previous Ariane 4 and 5?
Ariane 4 was in service from 1988 to 2003 and was the most profitable launcher because it was the only one in the commercial market. The American space shuttle was not a commercial competitor. Even when Ariane 5 was able to launch two large satellites, it needed financial support. Independent access to space always represents a significant cost.
If Starship succeeds, will it be a game-changer and drop in price per kilo in orbit?
Honestly, I don’t think Starship is going to be a game changer or a real contender. This large launcher is designed to fly people to the moon and Mars. The Ariane 6 is up to the job if you need to launch a four or five ton satellite. Star won’t finish Ariane 6 at all. In the future, like in 2040, the situation will be different. We’ll probably have a space shuttle system with repeatable and reusable launchers that fly to the station. In the hub, there will be platforms, satellites and space vehicles going to other areas, refueling and servicing capabilities, orbital manufacturing, etc. Star transport will probably have a major role in carrying heavy cargo to this space transportation hub, as container. when the ship arrives at the terminal. Europe is already addressing this vision with the development of space cargo, in-orbit refueling, space systems, and traffic to the Moon using Ariane 6.
Lately, Elon Musk has been saying that reusable launchers make sense. With only nine or 10 uses per year for Ariane 6, does reusability make sense in Europe?
We made the choice to no longer use Ariane 6 precisely because of this argument. Our launch requirements are so low that it will not make economic sense. So, we don’t need it at this time. But when we launch regularly in the future, we will need to use it again for economic reasons. The second reason for having a European launcher reuse is sustainability. We must have a circular economy in 10 or 20 years; we need to be sustainable. And for that, we are already developing Themis, which is a European launch vehicle with a reusable main stage and other reusable technologies such as the Prometheus engine. But already, this decade we will have Maia, a privately developed launcher backed by France that is small but reusable. Maia will use the Prometheus liquid propellant rocket engine and will be based on Themis reusable stage guide technology.
How important are small and medium launchers for Europe?
Compared to 10 years ago, I am very surprised to see these smaller and smaller launchers flourishing all over Europe. They are made in Spain, France, Norway, Sweden, England. For the first time, new space stations are being built in Europe. It’s amazing. We want to change the paradigm in the startup industry in Europe by introducing competition, which is going well in many startups. The European Launch Challenge, which was announced last year in Seville, will play a key role in shaping the future of European space access by increasing the competitiveness of European launch services. The idea is to make these privately developed launchers grow into heavy launchers. They all want to do that.
How can you combine the competition between individual launchers in Europe with the “georeturn” policy, which has been the industrial policy of ESA for 40 years?
For small launchers, they are not driven by “georeturn,” we only select the best proposals, and we hope that the ESA member country that corresponds to this offer will fund it. Note that these startups in some cases have a large geographical distribution of industries outside their national borders. For example, the small French-made Maia Launcher privately selected 40% of its distributors outside of France. And these suppliers are often the same as Ariane 6 suppliers.
Could Ariane 6 augment the future performance of ESA’s senior Argonaut to contribute to the Artemis program?
We are already working on a more powerful version of Ariane 6, called Block Two. With more powerful additions, better high-speed performance through an increase in engine thrust up to 200 kN, the gain is two tons for LEO. It will allow deployment to the Kuiper constellation. We will not take a decision on Block Three, the more powerful version called the Black upper platform, until the European ministerial meeting in November 2025. As an alternative to increase the performance of Ariane 6, we are focusing on in-orbit refueling, working on the Argonaut concept and adding fuel to the orbiter to increase its performance. Therefore, together with two Ariane 6, we launch a full reserve with Argonaut with its payload and less fuel. We will then dock at the tank to refuel. This mode provides a significant increase in performance to deliver payloads to the surface of the Moon. Argonaut is a European lunar probe that will provide free access to the Moon for Europe, allowing us to play a major role on the surface of our natural satellite. In the 2030s, Argonaut, launched on Ariane 6, will deliver up to 2,100 kg of cargo to the surface of the Moon.
If ESA decides to have a European crewed space flight, is Ariane 6 up to the task?
Ariane 6 could be a human-rated launcher with some modifications. But we can also invest in a safety system for the capsule to make it safe for the crew in case it fails to launch. We are committed to finding a better compromise between these two options in the coming year. Any decision to pursue these options rests with ESA Member States and only in this event, ESA will not favor a particular launcher; would ask industries to come up with proposals.
Should ESA be willing to think about a reusable Ariane 7 for the next decade?
I don’t think at least for now that ESA plans to make a choice of its own launcher. For Ariane 6, we own almost everything, such as the launch vehicle system, manufacturing equipment, launcher definition, launch pad, etc. In the future, it will be completely different; the launcher will be developed individually. We will only buy services, such as the Commercial Orbital Flight Services program in the US NASA is doing both. We will not build a European SLS.
Currently, Ariane 6 is a conventional launcher. It’s a good system because the Ariane 62 (530 tons with two boosters) replaces the Russian Soyuz, and the Ariane 64 (850 tons with four boosters) replaces the Ariane 5. So it covers all of our needs. Ariane 6 could be Europe’s workhorse for the next 15 to 30 years.
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